Positioning for the Next Phase: Strategy Amid Volatility

Allocation Strategy for the Next 1 -10 Weeks

We are now entering the Volatility Phase of the Trump tariff strategy. Headline risk dominates, talks are underway, and earnings season begins next week.

The market is no longer responding to data. It is responding to game theory, negotiation signals, and trust in forward guidance.

Here's how to position smartly—whether you're allocating capital or trading short-term events.

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🔄 Where Are We in the Timeline?

📅 Apr 8 - Apr 30: Volatility Phase

• Tariffs in place on ~90 countries, but temporary rollback offers hope.

• Markets are testing scenarios daily — one tweet = ±2% swings.

• Key driver: Progress (or perceived progress) in trade negotiations.

🔮 May 1 - June 30: Binary Path Ahead

• Bullish Case: Deals are struck. Europe, Japan, Korea make Treasury purchases or tariff commitments. China calms down.
  → Result: Broad market rally, especially in industrials and financials.

• Bearish Case: Talks stall. China retaliates. U.S. tightens the screws.
  → Result: Sharp pullback, led by semis, autos, and global cyclicals.

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